Customs figures released by the 10th show, in August, China exported US $ 173.31 billion, an increase of 24.5%. Despite the one-month export growth continues to rebound, but the scale of export reduced slightly. Experts say the impact on Chinese exports slowing global economic recovery has lagged, China’s exports in the fourth quarter showed a significant downside risks.
”From external factors to watch global economic recovery there exist many uncertain, unstable factors, multiple international economic organizations cut global growth expected, us high in European developed economies, unemployment, sluggish consumption, overall, annual export and export last year have eased considerably on. “International trade and economic cooperation, research fellow, Institute of Li Jian said.
Li Jian-Wu’s thought, though the last quarter export have the effect of positive factors, such as Christmas, but the environment of the global economic slowdown will have a greater impact on Chinese exports.
According to customs statistics, the first 8 months, China’s foreign trade imports and exports totalling US $ 2,352,530,000,000, up 25.4%. Among them, export reached $ 1,222,630,000,000, up 23.6%; import 1.1299 trillion dollars, an increase of 27.5%. US $ 92.73 billion trade surplus, by 10%.
According to the July China’s export growth has been experiencing after four months of consecutive decline back to 20.4%, in August continued to back up to 24.5%. Export scale, August than July reduced slightly 1.82 billion dollars.
”Exports in August was relatively stable. “Li jianwu’s view that” despite the August monthly exports compared with the last month, slightly down, but more than 150 billion dollars compared with the first few months remained relatively fast growth. “The first half of China’s one-month exports four months at more than 150 billion dollars.
Winner Institute of securities, Li Yujia analysis, analysis from foreign demand in the future, before the advent of new economic growth points, Chinese main export destinations such as Europe and the countries in the future for a long period of time had to be in the digestive situation brought about by the financial crisis and its sequelae, the deterioration of the external economic environment will scale of China’s exports continued to decline.
At bilateral trade with major trade partner, 8 month before EU bilateral trade worth 372.14 billion dollars, growth 21.8%. The same period, Sino-US bilateral trade amounted to us $ 285.65 billion, an increase of 17.8%.
Insufficient foreign demand only one reason for the slowdown in China’s export future. Many experts believe that from the perspective of domestic factors, financing difficulties, rising costs, its currency has made a number of exporting SMEs operating in trouble, that does not have product pricing power and bargaining power, unable to gain a competitive advantage and maintain market share.
Macroeconomic Research Institute national development and Reform Commission’s recent survey found that in Guangdong and Zhejiang and other major foreign trade province, 20% foreign trade small businesses struggling; 50% per cent of small and medium enterprises in the middle.
Analysis of national securities noted that August PMI new export orders index appeared in China-season of the fall is large, far beyond historical levels fell in the same period, indicating that the next 3 months or so, China’s exports accelerated significantly down the possibility of increasing.
But Li Jian also believes that, given the current economic situation is different from the financial crisis of 2008, the global economy may not be as “double dip” and therefore export downside risk than in 2008.
China Tsinghua University and economy Research Center expects this year exports to grow 11.9% imports will grow 27%. Export marked slowdown, imports remained relatively fast growth.
According to customs data in August, imports amounted to $ 155.56 billion, an increase of 30.2%, monthly imports hit a record high; monthly trade surplus of us $ 17.75 billion, representing a clear last month dropped.
Li Jian said that this year is “Twelve-Five” the first year of the local government faster GDP growth, strong investment impulse, making around the demand for commodities remain strong, coupled with the same period last year because of the low base, resulting in imports in August grew fairly rapidly. He predicted surplus last year almost all year round or slightly decreased.