19 June 2010, the People’s Bank of China released a new exchange rate reform, structural reforms aimed at promoting trade and upgrade the industrial structure adjustment. This paper describes integrated from multiple perspectives how the impact of exchange rate changes of industrial structure, and exchange rate changes to upgrade the industrial structure under some suggestions.
First, exchange rates and industrial structure of the relationship.
In general, the exchange rate changes and the relationship between industrial structure has the following transfer: exchange rate changes directly affect the trade structure, and the impact on the trade structure will eventually be reflected in changes in industrial structure came up.
Economic integration in the world today, each country’s economy at large international division of labor in the background, the country’s industrial structure by the effect of changes in the world economy by other countries in the world, the impact of changes in economic structure, trade structure and therefore a certain extent, able to influence the industrial structure.
Second, exchange rate changes on industrial restructuring and upgrading of way.
1. Through foreign trade of industrial upgrading. Structural effects from the trade point of view, non-neutral if the exchange rate, exchange rate changes cause the domestic various trade competitiveness of their products of the following changes. Because of trade, foreign elasticity of demand for different products, when the elasticity of export demand elasticity for the unit, caused by exchange rate movements and export price movements in volatility are equal; when the export elasticity of demand is greater than 1, the exchange rate of its export trade large; when the export demand elasticity is less than 1, the impact of exchange rate changes little. As capital and technology intensive goods elasticity of demand for smaller, when the real exchange rate appreciation due to capital and technology intensive products, changes in foreign demand for smaller, but significantly reduced the demand for foreign labor-intensive.
When the industry entirely by domestic factors of production available, the exchange rate changes on domestic prices did not affect the product, but only act on the international market price of export commodities. When the greater part of the industry factors of production from abroad, the exchange rate changes affect not only the international market price, also on the impact of import prices of production factors.
Therefore, the real exchange rate appreciation will eventually lead to capital-and technology-intensive products relative to labor-intensive exports increased, thus demonstrating the upgrade trade structure.
2. Through the FDI impact of industrial upgrading. Of the United States and other developed countries, multinational companies, they pay more attention to China’s direct investment in market development and possession, its main purpose is to reduce trade costs through the FDI market access or access to the host country, the main considerations include economies of scale, development policies and other factors. While emerging markets in Asia such as Hong Kong and other non-developed countries, their direct investment in China to seek investment opportunities in low-cost, in order to take full advantage of national police assigned different factors of production, dominant establishment of an international industrial chain, and its products sold for export or domestic markets of developed countries. Therefore, exchange rate movements on the impact of FDI in these countries is more significant.
Thus, although the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of total FDI investment has a negative impact, but will help to improve the investment structure of FDI, to increase investment in capital-intensive industries to reduce investment in labor-intensive industries, thereby encouraging foreign participation in domestic industrial structure adjustment and optimization.
Third, the exchange rate reform on the significance of industrial upgrading.
1. Change the over-reliance on foreign demand, economic growth, and expand domestic demand. From a macroeconomic development, the driving economic growth in the “troika” in the healthy development of domestic demand will be the future of the fundamental driving force of sustainable economic development. Therefore, should take advantage of favorable conditions for exchange rate reform will be the current over-reliance on external demand in China’s economic growth model to gradually adjust domestic demand-led model.
2. Full of flexible exchange rate mechanism to self-allocation of resources is conducive to adjusting the industrial structure. Flexible exchange rate formation mechanism will be the market price by means of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and change resources gathered over the situation to the export sector, and promote growth of services and other tertiary industries, and gradually improve China’s industrial and trade structure.
3. Conducive to improving China’s position in the international division of labor, to enable enterprises to enhance the capability of independent innovation and technology upgrading. Over the years, the number of labor-intensive products in China depend on the implementation of export-oriented expansion strategy, most companies are at a low price to win, lack of brand long-term planning.
When the exchange rate adjustment, export prices increased at this stage in China will bring huge shock enterprises, forcing them to accelerate the upgrade, take the difference, branding the path of development, by improving the technological competitiveness to go content type corresponding to the path of development will improve our position in the international division of labor.
Fourth, the policy recommendations.
Through the above analysis, we recognize that and adjust the exchange rate mechanism on the one hand help the Chinese to adapt to globalization, to adapt to China’s sustainable economic growth; the other hand, exchange rate policy by other means, help to now rely on external demand and investment in China’s drive model of economic growth, changes in domestic demand driven by internal growth-oriented, to achieve internal economic balance. Based on the above analysis, the author of the reform of exchange rate policy and the upgrading of industrial structure context of the following views:
1. To maintain exchange-rate appreciation of the initiative and slightly progressive principles. The slow economic restructuring and macroeconomic stability in China determined to maintain the exchange rate should be kept slightly progressive principles. Because the yuan appreciate slightly conducive to maintaining the comparative advantages of trade, elements of domestic resources and help the flow of labor-intensive industries from technology-intensive industries, thus contributing to the advancement of domestic industrial structure and the direction of evolution.
2. To increase efforts to support high-tech export policy. Some of the exchange rate of theory and has been run, the real exchange rate will be on China’s exports have a significant impact, in this case, the Government should adopt preferential policies on the export of high-tech exports support, and actively guide the export of industrial upgrading , promote the export of industrial innovation, increase the technological content and added value and lead to the advancement of domestic industrial structure as a whole.
3. By improving mechanisms to facilitate imports of high-tech high-tech industries. High-tech imports to China high-tech industry has a positive role in the development, and the current high-tech industry in China is still in the elasticity of demand shortage. Therefore, we can use the real exchange rate of RMB exchange rate reform to improve upon the favorable conditions of high-tech products through imports to meet domestic demand; addition of high-tech imports, domestic manufacturers can make by learning advanced science and technology, competition with foreign manufacturers to acquire, improve the technology industry production purposes.
References:
[1] Li Tiandong. Jiang Polk. Growth and employment under the dual constraints of the RMB exchange rate policy [J]. Shanghai finance. 2006, (8) :4-8
[2] Liu Chen Ran. Localization of Multinational R & D spillovers and crowding out effect [J]. China Science and Technology Information. 2005, (16): 76
[3] Lu forward, Dai Guoqiang. RMB real exchange rate fluctuations on the impact of China Import and Export [J]. Economic Research. 2005, (5) :31-39
[4] Lei Dehui. RMB appreciation on China Export Commodity Structure of [J] Guangxi Finance Institute. 2007, (20): 98 of 102
[5] Jie Sun, Yu Jian. Under the open economy industrial structure adjustment of China [M] Beijing: Economic Management Press. 2007:110-130
汇率变动影响下的产业结构升级
【摘要】2010年6月19日，中国人民银行发布了新的汇率改革方案，旨在促进贸易结构的改革以及产业结构的升级调整。本文从多角度综合阐述了汇率变动如何影响产业结构，并对汇率变动下的产业结构升级提出了一些建议。
【关键词】汇率 对外贸易 FDI产业 结构升级。
一、汇率变动与产业结构的关系。
一般而言，汇率变动与产业结构有下列传导关系：汇率变动直接影响贸易结构，而对贸易结构的影响最终将反映到产业结构的变化上来。
在世界经济一体化的今天，各个国家的经济置于国际化大分工的背景之下，各国的产业结构受到世界经济变动的影响，受到世界上其他国家经济结构变动的影响，因此贸易结构在一定程度上能够影响产业结构。
二、汇率变动对产业结构升级的影响途径。
1.通过对外贸易影响产业升级。从贸易的结构效应角度来看，如果汇率非中性，汇率变动引起了国内各种贸易产品的竞争力发生下列的变化。由于各种贸易产品的国外需求弹性不同，当出口需求弹性为单位弹性时，汇率变动引起的价格变动幅度与出口变动幅度相等；当出口需求弹性大于1时，汇率变动对其出口贸易的影响大；当出口需求弹性小于1时，汇率变动的影响较小。由于资本和技术密集型商品的需求弹性较小，实际汇率升值时引起的资本、技术密集型产品国外需求量变化较小，而劳动密集型的国外需求量大幅减少。
当该产业的生产要素完全由国内提供时，汇率变动对产品的国内价格没有影响，而仅作用于出口商品的国际市场价格。当该产业的生产要素较大部分来自国外时，汇率变动不仅仅影响其国际市场价格，同样也对进口生产要素价格产生影响。
因此，实际汇率的升值最终将导致资本技术密集型产品相对于劳动密集型产品出口量增加，从而表现出贸易结构的升级。
2.通过FDI影响产业结构升级。对美国等发达国家的跨国公司而言，它们在我国的直接投资更注重市场的开拓与占有，其主要目的是通过FDI减少外贸成本或者获得东道国市场准入，主要考虑因素包括经济规模、开发政策等因素。而对香港这样的亚洲新兴市场以及其它非发达国家而言，它们在我国的直接投资主要寻求低成本的投资机会，以充分利用各国的生产要素察赋不同，优势建立国际产业链，其产品主要用于出口销往本国或者发达国家市场。因此汇率变动对这些国家的FDI的影响更为显著。
因此，人民币汇率升值虽然对FDI的投资总量具有负的影响，但有利于改善FDI的投资结构，增加对资本密集型产业的投资力度，减少对劳动密集型产业的投资，从而鼓励外资参与国内的产业结构调整和优化。
三、汇率改革对产业升级的意义。
1.改变过分依赖外需的经济增长模式，有利于扩大内需。从宏观经济发展看，在拉动经济增长的这“三驾马车”中，内需的健康发展将是未来我国经济可持续发展的根本动力。因此，应该利用汇率改革的有利条件，将我国目前过分依赖外需的经济增长模式逐步调整为内需主导型模式。
2.富于弹性的汇率机制能够自发地配置资源，有利于调整产业的结构。有弹性的汇率形成机制将通过市场价格手段进行产业结构优化升级，改变资源过度向出口行业聚集的局面，促进服务业等第三产业成长，逐步改善我国产业和贸易结构。
3.有利于改善我国在国际分工中的地位，使企业增强自主创新能力和提升科技水平。长期以来，我国依靠劳动密集型产品的数量扩张实行出口导向型战略，企业大多都是以低价取胜，缺乏品牌长远规划。
当汇率调整时，出口产品价格升高将给我国处于这一阶段的企业带来巨大的震动，迫使他们去加速产品的升级，走差异化、品牌化的发展道路，通过提高技术竞争力来走内涵式发展道路相应地也将改善我国在国际分工中的地位。
四、政策建议。
通过以上分析我们认识到，调整汇率形成机制一方面有助于中国适应全球化、适应中国经济的可持续增长；另一方面，通过汇率政策等手段，有助于把现在中国依靠外需和投资拉动的经济增长模式，改变为内需推动、以内部为导向的增长方式，达到内部经济平衡。根据以上的分析，笔者对汇率政策的改革及其背景下的产业结构升级提出以下看法：
1.保持汇率升值的主动性和小幅渐进原则。经济结构转型的缓慢性和保持我国宏观经济的稳定性决定了汇率升值应保持小幅渐进原则。因为，人民币小幅升值既有利于维持贸易的比较优势，又有助于国内资源要素从劳动密集型产业流向技术密集型产业，从而促使国内产业结构向高度化方向演进。
2.加大高技术出口的政策扶持力度。从汇率理论和己有的研究来看，实际汇率上升将会对我国的出口产生重大影响，在这种情况下，政府应通过在出口优惠政策上对高技术出口进行扶持，积极引导出口产业结构升级，全面推动出口产业的创新，提高产品的技术含量和附加值，进而引导国内整体产业结构的高度化。
3.通过改善高技术进口机制来促进我国高新技术产业的发展。高技术进口对我国高新技术产业发展具有一定的积极作用，而目前我国的高技术产业还处于需求弹性不足的情况。因此，我们完全可以利用汇改后人民币实际汇率提高的有利条件，通过进口高技术产品来满足国内需求；此外高技术进口，还可使国内厂商通过学习国外先进科学技术，与国外制造商竞争而达到获得、提高技术产业生产能力的目的。
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It would be very appreciated, if enthusiasts can provide with better translation.