Jun 122011
 


When cold war wais over , IT improves to alter from day to day , transnational direct investments advances by leaps and bounds since the nineties,freedom to trade and capital flows liberty become the themes of the times , global economy integration becomes irresistible new century tidal current. Asian financial crisis never thinking of , happening in summer in 1997, not only ever more flourishing asian economy is stirred getting a complete mess, and, one wheel of international idle fund catches one wheel impingement, crisis is spreading in course of to Russia and Latin America , is watching helplessly even being going Europe (by Russia and Eastern Europe) and USA (by Asia and Latin America) to be rolled up coming in, reunion puts up front futile global economy Great Depression. Economic aid of the International Monetary Fund does not help matters almost light does oil at the furthest end of , but. The country and region suffering disaster one by one and suffering disaster imminently can only choose that the individual certainly sweeps snow in front of the door , the government interferes with and gets involved in marketplace operation numerously and confusedly directly, put foreign exchange control into practice even simply. Liberalization of global economy integration reforms open rose color view , the “financial crisis endless one , has no way over “scribbles such that being not as it was before.
One, opposes Malaysian foreign exchange control of machine-made government intervention of free market: Enter country internal affair for preventing international organization and foreign force from adulterating work, Malaysia has refused to IMF organize a loan having additional condition in one try of beginning , the strength trying to be based self on deals with crisis. Huge sum international idle fund impingement has been in fact very big and powerful but, has been that one trifling small country is able to withstand on one’s own? 2 horses have no way to keep a field within limits continuing gliding yuan with stock market , force Prime Minister Mahathir to have chosen foreign exchange control ultimately. The content controlling includes the entry-exit being not that resident’s currency exchanges , offshore registered permanent residence transfers accounts , buying roll out , overseas investment , import and export settlement and cash selling stock gains. Briefly speaking , remove from game, close not having played. Announce foreign exchange control measure’s basic conversion rate of horse had risen by 7.2% in that very day. 3 the Hong Kong banker fate and thirty style increasing by “seven move of friction”: Face International speculator on stocks destroying nature attack , Hong Kong authority one wheel “according to “dyadic new of cash dispenser being at the end of one’s forbearance , enter the city , the pen doing over-bought, Hong Kong dollar , buy stock , buy futures directly. A day , Hong Kong stock market close a deal on August 28 79 billion Hong Kong dollar, establish the history tidemark. The special administrative region government collects large amount of the hang seng index share selling at low prices , throws a number collecting a number according to Shan Quan , be of great the posture not stinting nationalization “hang seng index share enterprise.

Debut “seven immediately next to the government, courting thirty style “. “Seven moves among them “are seven new measure of item of Hong Kong finance administration bureau , aim at strengthening issue of bank notes bureau system and the operating funds increasing bank system , cut down Hong Kong dollar interest rate being the chance controlling by person. “Thirty style “is five bureaux respectively specifically for Hong Kong allying self with exchange , futures exchange , the bond and futures affair supervise a committee , central authority settles the company , government finance and economics affair organization, brings forward new discipline or reaffirms a few trading rules, reinforce the inspection throwing empty space to stock. These technicality measure , the drawings “procedure being to stir-fry for International speculator on stocks in the last analysis interpose an obstacle , increase friction, dodge to stir-fry a family made a profit to money , retreated before the impossible so easily. System is invariable though connection exchange rate issues a bureau, not only these restrictive measure entangling the foot stir-frying a family between nations on peculiar significance, be that international capital flow getting in and out in Hong Kong has increased friction at the same time also on general significance.

Every country and region government starts getting involved numerously and confusedly , intervenes in markets: The beginning of January , 1998 , the new Taiwan dollar have added U. S. dollar to falling greatly within the three day afterwards as far back as , Taiwan has closed NDF right away immediately (there being no capital forward exchange trades). 9 goes down 4 the fund air raid for guarding against the rope Ross flag at the beginning of the month”, Taiwan finance authority announces with direct mention on sb.’s name, forbid the Taiwan investor to will invest in the rope Ross fund besides the fund converges to leave the country , strictly forbid Taiwan bond merchant to be that the fund goes down Shan business under rope Ross flag. 5 Singapores have revised stock market index then , it truns out that weighting calculation switches over to be that market capitalization is a weighting with price has secretly been schemed against , the messenger has been stir-fried the share earns profit by controlling exponent component degree of difficulty increases by. 6 Russia for defending a rouble, once announced on August restricting commercial banks buying foreign currency, be foreign exchange control in fact. 7 has given up afterwards , result , rouble conversion rate have glided all the way , the rouble has devalued from August 17 to September 9, exceeding 60%, 8 foreign currency business is suspended several times, the bank stops the rouble conversion also again and again. There be information to say lately president Yeltsin thinks in course of in domestic circulating to restrict U. S. dollar. 9 two”capital myth “vanishes into thin air sending economics trade theory authority Bagewa to carry (Jagdish Bhagwati) saying freely , capital liberalization is that the trade liberalization idea extends, but, advocate that The Economists of capital liberalization does not resemble free trade Economists taking out sufficient demonstration analysis like that all along. Large amount of the short-term capital movement factual proof, irregularly and being difficult to control , the gathering place of fish or beasts being a lot of country outburst financial crisis. Both more and more many evidence and logic speculate hold out restricting currency liberty being on the move. That trade liberalization and currency liberalization are completely different is two different matters, and so on. 10 Singapore money political affairs Lee Kuan Yew said Asian cause of disease “is that capital market is untimely open. 11 USA “newsweek ” announces a signed article saying , the whole world capital flows makes national poor economy even more unsteady, benefit having damaged the Fu Guo investor’s at the same time conversely. 12 investment bank Warburg Pincus & Co. Carry out president Rajiv Lall saying: Globalization “and international financial market anastomosing is a “double-edged sword originally “, people is turned out to be believing now benefit meeting greater than disadvantage, has been most probably incorrect. Restricting assuming some aspect to international capital flows, maybe is not a piece of bad thing. 13 has the policy that indication indicates, including International Monetary Fund and seven countries of west to work out person being in the cards changing the consistent attitude opposing the capital flows controlling. Because of are “lower in “new system of the international finance, may require that some specially appointed capital controls measure , deals with special case. 14 hemp provinces professor of institute of technology Kelugeman (Paul Krugman) speaks more direct, Asia every country economy struggle hard , do not have an improvement even a tiny bit, may initiate new one wheel of capital outflows tide and graver crisis at any time. Be foreign exchange control to this , unique method, despite of this is that what many person abstains from mentions. He thinks that China is that there exists very big problem in very good one example , Chinese economy and financial system, safety island in being able to become asian financial turmoil but “, the foreign exchange control by being effective. 15 three, International Monetary Fund can do nothing for sb according to the annual finance report that International Monetary Fund announces , accepting International Monetary Fund aiding a maximum’s is S. Korea , Indonesia and Argentina till financial year in June , 1998 in June , 1997. 16 IMF organizes self for this purpose, already appearing financial crisis, hope that U.S. Congress approves 18 billion U. S. dollar allocation of funds as soon as possible. International Monetary Fund subsidiary implementation president Fischer is estimated , may be used for the section of an article in a legal document aiding till 9 billion U. S. dollar 50 being left only now. 17 sisters organization World Bank also send out a warning , the country provides a great quantity to suffering disaster aiding a loan, stability having already affected World Bank assets’s, unless the shareholder pours a fund in again, World Bank will have no way to continue to problematic country Shi to aid. By now, World Bank has already provided 8,400,000,000 us dollar loan to asian countries with Russia, to take up but to offer the loan forehead degree 77.7%. And 18 International Monetary Fund contribute money making efforts , the liberalization reformation opens a scheme further for the recipient country brings forward one big cover , the country who requires that those need badly stimulate the economy prosperity tight money policy , improves interest rate , strict control financial deficit, can not put currency bureau system into practice. 19 result, accepts the country that International Monetary Fund aids , one so far can not extricate oneself from a predicament. Kelugeman said That plan of the International Monetary Fund does not rescue Asia out in secondary crisis not only, makes condition get worse and worse on the contrary. Though 20 theory having a variety of free flow of capital and financial market opening to the outside world, provide a loan of people’s International Monetary Fund “finally as every country, can do nothing for sb already before gigantic destructive power of international idle fund.

Four, Euro faces grave challenge

On January 1 , 1999, 11 countries of European Union start Euro formally. But, should be all till originating country currency in July , 2002, quiting the historical stage. The transition period , Reichsmark , currency such as French franc , Italy lira coexist with Euro in this for 3 years , at the same time, issue and circulate. Such “double-track pricing system transition period, has been that the international stir-fries the central bank making use of Euro and poolicy orientation deviation , weak link choosing crush one by one in every country between the central bank , has provided a golden opportunity. Representative lessons drawn from others’ mistakes is pound sterling in 1992 “blocking action “. Europe exchange rate stabilized system (ERM) middle at that time , the weak power currency pound sterling added mark currency value being partial to height obviously. United Kingdom (high-interest , will shake off an economic downturn again now that essential points maintains currency currency value maintaining), unique way out is to require that Germany reduces interest. But, Germany is juat now unified , the exchange rate according to one to one united as one Westmark with East Germany mark, can not reduce interest not only for the pressure big and powerful that the bring down the inflation storm rises, need to increase interest on the contrary. Thereupon, the weak power pound sterling becomes the speculator pen buying the empty space attack target. One hard fighting is come down , the pound sterling is shown Europe exchange rate by international idle fund stabilizing system. Rope Ross is complacent , earn 1 billion pound sterlings greatly, United Kingdom property is covered with dust all over the face each other , is forced to resign. 21 participates in 11 country of European Union middle of Euro now, economic development of every country is very unbalanced , poolicy orientation is neither consistent. These democratic state government , politics elected by people must obey a ballot ticket , crucial moment formulates a policy, can only set off from benefit of homeland constituency, common advance and retreat very easy can not to on monetary policy. Euro challenges U. S. dollar , is that a gang of the alliance conspiring against each other and a unified giant big and powerful fight , the prospect makes people be anxious for. Can not say the hereafter in 1999 if 22 the pound sterling and the Italy lira can be stabilized system (ERM) quilt showing Europe exchange rate consecutively in 1992,other Euro area currency, for instance , Reichsmark, may not become the congenial target of international idle fund. Now, Germany checks the Muscovite huge sum problem getting a loan already may pound German bank system. 23 concerns close eastern european countries with plain East Germany with Russia economical , directness accepting the Russia crisis gets into trouble, in national currency such as Poland , Czech , Hungary already having been got along fluttering about in the storm. 24 Germany suggests using Euro to rescue Russia , hopes the collective action self is rolled up from this in Eastern Europe and Russia benefit fully grown European Union. Affect currency and economic policy arriving at German if 25 Russia and Eastern Europe condition worsen,the poolicy orientation bringing about Germany and other European Union country inconformity, is logical , can not remove mark being confronted with pound sterling unfavourable situation in 1992 possibility. Euro system is shown even if mark undergoes forceful impact,Euro, tests even prospect of entire European Union will be confronted with austerity unprecendented.

Since five, the Period of Warring States of global economy integration cold war is over, the whole world enters the tide reforming and opening , the subject is economy liberalization. Reducing customs duties , trade liberalization , capital by a wide margin being on the move freely , opening telecommunication market , transnational direct investments and enterprise merger , attract foreign funds , various economy of developing country Bund building-up , European Union to the outside world unifying from customs union to trade liberalization to currency and so on, is be that the country government intensity to economic activity direct under the control of is one by one small with interfering with range more and more all these nature. With Asian financial crisis and the crisis infestation to South America , Muscovite,liberalization reform and openness tidal current has begun to reverse a trend obviously.

Before long, the “Asia pattern “becomes a target of public criticism. Academic circles agrees with one consent: The Asian financial crisis cause is that the government is excessive interfere with economy , brings about bubble economy. Now, crisis spreads to Russia “outside “Asia pattern with South America every country. That the former puts into effect is the west “shock therapy praising highly extremely”the latter processes a base by that debt crisis almost becomes American hereafter. This makes people be deepened by gradually to the crisis understanding , begins to inversion happened and. Since the practice what is called, becoming worse “, facing is financial crisis,governments of all countries in the world draws to the economic activity controlling interfering with having reinforced greatly. Hong Kong is celebrated for that the government is stop interfering with an economic activity but all the time in the world. Result , authority have to banker fate”bury body hand-to-hand fight in person and international idle fund “, thirty are dyadic immediately next to “seven moves promulgating an effectuation “, become the classic documentation becoming worse from liberalization to interfering with greatly but interfering with specially. The country carries out Asian financial crisis early phase , International Monetary Fund in receiving aid going a step further liberalization reformation , result invalidate, and add to the misfortunes of a man who is already unfortunate , meet with common criticism not only, classic documentation being another direction. Reformation that Chinese rmb capital projects but liberty exchanges after financial crisis,remove from the logic choice space reforming further nearly, be that one is a classic documentation. Malaysia puts the foreign exchange control success into practice , it seems that one kind in being to deal with a lot of means of crisis chooses , has peculiar historic significance in fact. No freely convertible principle is same as RMB logically, liberty flows as long as shortage capital is unable , homeland central bank prosperity measures, be therefore likely to produce a marked effect in homeland range inner high limit field. Malaysia economy prosperity in other words, going over, is that Mahathir and rope Ross carry weight together , the inflow outflow may by international idle fund because of any central bank prosperity policy counteracts or enlarges. After putting foreign exchange control into practice, the Malaysian economy prosperity has become Mahathir one people right away carrying weight. Within Malaysia country range, the central bank can produce a marked effect in the condition distance of time of high limit that international idle fund rinses not or seldom “face to face. Certainly, price is gigantic , the effect does not admit ignoring especially to foreign merchant long range direct investments being defeated. 26 puts foreign exchange control all right into practice bluntly , the Hong Kong “seven court thirty style “all right , Taiwan forbids rope Ross to march into the arena with direct mention on sb.’s name all right, be to increase friction for international capital liberty flows on the character. If Rangsuo Ross does not come, self changes Luosuosi , Sisuoluo or rope Ross the name wants to come too , the Taiwan authorities can continue to increase the name list forbidding exiting , the impingement intensity always increasing to international idle fund is weakened to agreeable degree. If having had “seven to court thirty dyadic friction, international idle fund comes to pound fetching money , Hong Kong authority can continue to increase forty “eight moves style “, the impingement intensity always increasing to international idle fund is weakened to agreeable degree. These policy stipulates that in other words , therefore , that purpose all is to need to be that international capital flows creates friction, until rubbing greater than capital flows kinetic energy, makes to may bring about the capital hurting till being able to not be on the move freely. Putting into effect in fact all is foreign exchange control therefore, whether announcing foreign exchange control politically or not is one thing,degree the difference is lain in controlling. Because of even if being to announce effectuation foreign exchange control, draw concretely to how to controlling what degree to control to, self has a lot of clauses right away in capital item and the trade account,a lot of restricting to varying degrees and loosening dealing with different people in different ways. Since the purpose that various policy stipulates all is in this sense use the capital flows friction greater than capital flows kinetic energy,we are saying the different form (announce and do not announce) and foreign exchange control to varying degrees , are indicating inversion.

Free flow of capital and global finance integration myth, be shattered gradually in foreign exchange control composing in reply a various form of all localities government in every country. Trade liberalization accepts a threat with that. Lately, Bagewa mentions equal wests Economists that capital liberalization and trade liberalization is allotted but is worth it in terms of that, deliberate. Since the eighties powder and the nineties, trade liberalization advances by leaps and bounds development, rapid and intense connection is in the development advancing by leaps and bounds with transnational-rization , transnational direct investments of enterprise together. In peaceful environment being over in cold war, internal trade of multinational corporation the whole world division of work system “Zhan world commerce proportion is more and more big, not only 27 the liberty making import and export customs duties become bring sth. of which there is plenty, and intense request capital item to a great extent flows. On this material foundation, foreign exchange control of every country is as plain as the nose on one’s face to enormous negative transnational direct investments effect. Once transnational global range direct investments slows down down, foreign trade new focal point becoming every country policy surely again arguing about.

Make a general observation of the history that international economy develops at the modern times , have a development of the productive forces to exceed national boundaries and world market taking national country as element decentralize administration contradiction all the time. , Second World War and cold war in the hereafter, face colonial economy , Great War tier in economy , are this contradictious reporting essentially. Come just thinking of , all closing up in every country the door, automobile producing self according to million , millions upon millions population scale in the inside of national boundaries, the american general motors company gives birth to a child for 1 year being close to ten million automobile , can only be in USA , how possible woollen cloth to sell? Before a century, Max had described that United Kingdom machine weaves textile goods be destroyed to India and Chinese small-peasant economy once bloodyly detailedly. In this sense, say the W steam engine evolving out the history that capitalism whole world colonizes , do not draw a farfetched analogy. With the reason, can say in this sense also the cold war exactly being half sustained centuries, world market transnational according to development of the productive forces is demanded , concentrates becoming two big plate of can be transnational dividing the work and relative free trade, has establish the order basis that 50 world economic stabilities many years develop just now.

Now, Third World productivity’s the ability supplying develops. Development of development of the productive forces, is with IT industry as the leading role , gigantic once unparalleled leap happened. For adapting to development of this productivity , being in the eighties long ago,taking the continent as the unit wildly beating gongs and drums right away to such an extent as regional economy across prefecture trade forms an alliance, the field carries out. One ends , the global economy integration tide invests in right away directly in trade cold war,dispatch , medium , all aspect such as commerce , financial market opening to the outside world gigantic but come. If development of development of the productive forces the World War , socialism between imperialist state compose in reply capitalism worlds of two important camp order evolution with colonizing,existence some grow the inner link complementing each other , the global economy integration that technological progress drives, is that up to hundred million population scale what had no way to accommodate by the element country even then more with million , ten million today. On this issue, United Kingdom , France , Germany and four Spain powerful countries cooperate , ability makes up into Airbus, one and USA aviation industry fighting, be that development of the productive forces exceeds the national boundaries classic documentation in the respect of supplying. S. Korea national power and market size with several tens of millions population, develop grave challenge been confronted with by various estate on one’s own , are that development of the productive forces exceeds the very good national boundaries explanation in the field of need.

The global economy integration that development of the productive forces drives, is an irresistible historical trend. But, need being vigilant against, global economy integration does not imply justice and fairness even a tiny bit. History of elephant in the past has been the same , the global economy integration that development of the productive forces demands has fused few selfish productivity developed country national benefit. For instance , cold war ends a hereafter , American war industry re-organizes the war industry estate threatening Europe directly taking the country as unit’s to exist. 28 for example , Euro brewing a long time, speaks through, be also big powers of European Union unite get up, now that counter-balance USA , the implement seizing maximal portion in the process to the full in global economy integration. For instance , that very year British machine of elephant knits a textile goods right away is today with one kind , that the gunboat sends to come ,the end plays with a finance derive from the implement international idle fund runs amuck everywhere doing evil , most focus on several financial institutions of USA. 29 Asian financial crisis hereafter, few dominant developed country International Monetary Fund force everywhere to be stricken by disaster government liberalization reforms and opens further. The result adding to the misfortunes of a man who is already unfortunate, forces the more and more many nation country and region to make a vigorous start to protect self not to. Malaysian foreign exchange control , Taiwan forbid rope Ross to march into the arena , Hong Kong authority and international stir-fry a family “burying body hand-to-hand fight”our country RMB not devaluing and not considering convertible reformation of RMB for the moment and so on, be that national interests and the global economy integration trend adulterate the contradiction congregating together reporting. Begin now , never with the form and foreign exchange control to varying degrees, the behavior forcing all government interventions and controlling homeland economy’s reinforces financial crisis greatly. Two important camp of relative cold war era Er Yan , the world steps into a global economy integration “Period of Warring States” in course of. This is a contradictious proposition seemingly. But, from Industrial Revolution that the W steam engine brings about, history is that such walks contradictiously over. The optimum Paleituo model not having a pure economics here can make an explanation principle. If handling affairs completely according to optimum model of Paleituo, that the past imperialism colonizes certainly is to drive history to go ahead , striving for a national liberation having been accomplished is reactionary; Need to keep watch financial crisis today, the whole world all uses U. S. dollar one kind of currency, not to accommodate oneself to with fortune smiling come to change bothering going to why to wanting every country not to add with currency too?

The Period of Warring States “core is a war “character. Fight with and unite (be fight with forming an alliance needing) is this themes of the times.

1, research centre director Deng Ying who discusses middle , Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economic and cultural cleans the concept suggesting that the world enters the Period of Warring States. The author discusses middle in many times cleaning with Deng Ying , gets many beneficial enlightenment. The author is responsible to the main body of a book viewpoint and mistake.

The whole world hedge fund total assets amounts to 3 trillion U. S. dollar 2 according to estimate , may employ a fund amounting to 30 trillion U. S. dollar (230 trillion Hong Kong dollar) (seeing “apple daily ” plus the ability borrowing or lending money (secretly scheme against with the tenfold): “Stir-fry ammunition 230 trillion, property how to attend to withstand”September 14 , 1998). Another evidence estimation , the whole world cash flow in every day, before have reached 12,000 hundred million U. S. dollar a few years ago right away, the god of the earth who is used for international trade among them takes up 1% or so. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves of every country is general however U. S. dollar secretly schemes against with 10 billion, foundation is not a order of magnitude.

3 sees “believe newspaper “: “Malaysia puts severe foreign exchange control into practice”September 2 , 1998, the 8th page.

4 sees “believe newspaper “: The “platform entreats row of presidents to make an explanation be closed down NDF cause”September 1 , 1998, the 7th page.

5 sees “believe newspaper “: “Taiwan forces the rope Ross fund activity out all round , platform share falls urgently over the past wound 22 months newly low”September 1 , 1998, the 7th page.

6 sees “Ming Pao Daily news “: The new “star spirit stock market index decrease is charged by exercise”August 31 , 1998, mansion B-4 page.

7 sees John Thornhill: “Fears over devaluation send Russian markets into dive “, Financial Times, August 14 , 1998, the 1st page.

8 sees “believe newspaper “: “Shallow Xi Russia finance storm”September 9 , 1998, the 16th page. 9 wireless evidence Hong Kong TV news news report, October 3 , 1998.

10 sees Cui Zhi Yuan compiling: “Capital myth– trade in commodities and services “”refers to the manuscript ” , No with U. S. dollar trade difference. 98-14.

11 sees “Hong Kong Economic Daily “: “Be that Asia takes pulse– cause of disease: Capital market is opened untimely”September 15 , 1998, mansion A-2 page.

12 sees Robert J. Samuelson: “Global Capitalism , R.I.P “, Newsweek, September 14 , 1998, the 28th page.

13 sees Rajiv Lall: “Taming Capital Flows “, Far Eastern Economic Review, September 17 , 1998, the 47th page.

14 sees Stephen Fidler: “Capital curbs seen in more favourable light “, Financial Times, September 15 , 1998, the 12nd page.

15 sees Paul Krugman: “Saving Asia: It’s time to get radical “, Fortune, September 7 , 1998.

16 pair of Muscovite aids after June , the plan enters not yet.

17 sees Bob Davis: “IMF pledges its readiness to assist Brazil “, The Asian Wall Street Journal, September 8 , 1998, the 8th page.

18 sees Robert Chote: “World Bank sounds alarm over risky emergency loans “, Financial Times, September 25 , 1998, the 7th page. As long as this proportion reaches 80%, will have increased World Bank’s minimum capital requirement voluntarily according to regulation.

19 International Monetary Fund once successively decry with Russia in Indonesia for stable currency but put the issue of bank notes bureau system linking up with U. S. dollar into practice. 20 sees Paul Krugman: “Saving Asia: It’s time to get radical “, Fortune, September 7 , 1998.

21 consults the Yu another name for Mt. Taishan sunlight waiting for 1998: “Money with the fond dream ” , chinese cultural and historical press, di149-173 pages.

22 consults Liu Bing : Does “Ou Yuan Neng challenge U. S. dollar? “Refer to below expecting “the Hong Kong fax “.

23 Germany is the most country to Russia loan. Pay back the problem having difficulty for these company interest getting a loan, that Germany bank financial affairs grades may obj1 = ” 位” ? be exchanged low (idea Graham Bowley: “Russian crisis hits German banks “, Financial Times, September 15 , 1998, the 26th page).

24 sees Stefan Wagstyl: “Eastern Europe feels fallout from the crisis “, Financial Times, September 11 , 1998, the 2nd page.

25 Germany is the war criminal that the country “is defeated by the former Soviet Union and “the Warsaw Treaty Organization, after cold war is over, for oneself safe and consolidated east , West Germany merge again, in NATO “east expand “middle exerting oneself to the utmost most , invest maximum in Russia and eastern european countries.

26 consults Sheila McNulty: “Malaysia’s capital controls create investment challenge “, Financial Times, September 15 , 1998, the 22nd page.

27 don’t say that economy internationalization degree is colonizing right away very tall UK-US of times big powers , latecomer Japan , as far back as 1983 , the product controller accounts for 23.7 of Japan total export volume % right away in the inside of multinational corporation, the total import 27.7%; The nineties (consults Wang Xiao Qiang above developing more respectively to 30%: “Estate re-organizes time and tide wait for no man “, Renmin University of China publishing house printing plate in 1998).

28 consults Wang Xiao Qiang : “Estate re-organizes time and tide wait for no man “, Renmin University of China publishing house printing plate in 1998.

29 derive from the most outstanding implement marketplace characteristic it is altitude to concentrate , the more concentrates , as developing more and. The end of the year , USA Merrill Lynch , Solomon brother , J.P. Morgan & Co. , Mogenshidanli, are six taller than Sheng He Xin in 1993 inspiring confidence in sb. , account for 40% of implement contract the whole world derives from right away. When to Bank for International Settlement in 1996 investigation, 14 USA financial institutions account for 90% of implement activity USA whole nation derives from. 396 banks participate in United Kingdom derive from the implement business, (consults Wang Xiao Qiang above 22-25 accounting for 90% of volume of business go to among them: No the logic “contacting exchange rate’s is understood “”Hong Kong fax “. 97-8, November 8 , 1997).

  One Response to “Global Economic Intergration Entering to Warring States Period”

  1. 全球经济一体化的战国时代
    90年代以来,信息技术进步日新月异,跨国直接投资突飞猛进,贸易自由和资本流动自由成为时代的主题,全球经济一体化成为不可阻挡的新世纪潮流。不曾想,1997年夏天发生的亚洲金融危机,不仅把蒸蒸日上的亚洲经济搅得一团糟,而且,国际游资的一轮接着一轮的冲击,危机正在向俄罗斯和拉丁美洲蔓延,甚至眼看着要将欧洲(通过俄罗斯和东欧)和美国(通过亚洲和拉丁美洲)卷进来,团圆出一场空前的全球经济大萧条。国际货币基金组织的经济援助几乎灯干油尽,却于事无补。各个遭殃的和快要遭殃的国家和地区只好个人自扫门前雪,政府纷纷直接干预和介入市场运作,甚至干脆实施外汇管制。全球经济一体化之自由化改革开放的玫瑰色图景,被一场没完没了、没法“过去“的“金融危机“涂抹得面目全非。
    一、反自由市场机制的政府干预

    马来西亚的外汇管制:为了防止国际组织和外国势力掺活进国家内政,马来西亚一开始就拒绝了有附加条件的国际货币基金组织贷款,企图凭自己的力量应付危机。然而,巨额国际游资的冲击实在太强大了,岂是区区一小国能够独立招架?2 马元和股市无法遏制地持续下滑,迫使总理马哈蒂尔最终选择了外汇管制。管制内容包括非居民的货币兑换、离岸户口转帐、沽售股票所得的转出、海外投资、进出口结算以及现金的出入境。简而言之,退出游戏,关门不玩了。公布外汇管制措施的当天,马元汇价上升了7.2%。3

    香港的庄家下场和增加磨擦的“七招三十式“:面对国际炒家“按提款机“式的新一轮摧毁性攻击,香港当局忍无可忍,直接入市,大笔作多,买港元,买股票,买期货。8月28日一天,香港股市成交790亿港元,创历史最高记录。特区政府照单全收大量抛售的恒生指数股,抛多少收多少,大有不惜“国有化“恒生指数股企业的架式。

    紧接着,政府推出“七招三十式“。其中“七招“是香港金融管理局的七项新措施,旨在强化货币发行局制度和增加银行体系流动资金,减少港元利率被人为操纵的机会。“三十式“则分别针对香港联合交易所、期货交易所、证券及期货事务监察委员会、中央结算公司、政府财经事务局五个机构,提出新纪律或重申一些交易规则,加强对股票抛空的监管。这些技术性措施,归根结底是给国际炒家的“提款“程序设置障碍、增加摩擦,让炒家没那么容易赚到钱,知难而退。虽然联系汇率发行局制度不变,这些限制性措施不仅在特殊意义上绊住国际炒家的脚,同时也在一般意义上为国际资本在香港进出的流动增加了摩擦。

    各国家和地区政府纷纷出手,干预市场:早在1998年1月初,新台币兑美元在三天内大跌之后,台湾就立即关闭了NDF(无本金远期外汇交易)。 4 9月初,为了防止索罗斯旗下基金“空袭“,台湾金融当局指名道姓地宣布,不准台湾投资人将资金汇出境外投资索罗斯基金,严禁台湾证券商为索罗斯旗下基金下单买卖。5 新加坡则修改了股市指数,将原来以价格加权的计算改为市值加权计算,使炒家通过操纵指数成份股获利的难度增加。6 俄罗斯为了捍卫卢布,曾经在8月宣布限制商业银行购买外汇,其实就是外汇管制。7 后来又放弃了,结果,卢布汇价一路下滑,从8月17日到9月9日,卢布贬值超过60%,8 外汇交易几度被暂停,银行也一再停止卢布的兑换。最近又有消息说,总统叶利钦正在考虑限制美元在国内的流通。9

    二、“资本神话“幻灭

    自由派经济学贸易理论的权威巴格瓦提(Jagdish Bhagwati)说,资本自由化是贸易自由化的理念延伸,可是,鼓吹资本自由化的经济学家从来没有象自由贸易经济学家那样拿出足够的实证分析。大量事实证明,不规则和难以控制的短期资本流动,是许多国家爆发金融危机的渊薮。越来越多的证据和逻辑推理都支持限制货币自由流动。贸易自由化和货币自由化是完全不同的是两回事,云云。10

    新加坡资政李光耀说,亚洲的“病因“是资本市场过早开放。11 美国《新闻周刊》发表署名文章说,全球资本流动使穷国的经济越发不稳定,同时反过来损害了富国投资者的利益。12 投资银行Warburg Pincus & Co.的执行总裁Rajiv Lall说:“全球化“和国际金融市场的融合本来就是“双刃剑“,人们原来以为好处会大于坏处,现在看来不对了。对国际资本流动作某些方面的限制,也许不是一件坏事。13 有迹象表明,连国际货币基金组织和西方七国的政策制定者们都有可能改变反对管制资本流动的一贯态度。因为在“新的国际金融体系“下,可能需要某些特定的资本管制措施,应付特殊情况。14

    麻省理工大学教授克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)说得更直接,亚洲各国经济苦苦挣扎,丝毫没有起色,随时可能引发新一轮的资本流出浪潮和更严重的危机。对此,唯一的方法是外汇管制,尽管这是很多人所忌讳提到的。他认为中国就是一个很好的例子,中国经济和金融体系存在很大的问题,却能成为亚洲金融风暴中的“安全岛“,靠的就是有效的外汇管制。 15

    三、国际货币基金组织无能为力

    根据国际货币基金组织公布的年度财政报告,1997年6月至1998年6月财政年度,接受国际货币基金组织援助最多的是南韩、印尼和阿根廷。16 为此,国际货币基金组织自己已经出现财政危机,希望美国国会尽快批准180亿美元的拨款。国际货币基金组织副执行总裁Fischer估计,现在可用于援助的款项只剩下50至90亿美元。17 姐妹机构世界银行也发出警告,向遭殃国家提供大量援助贷款,已经影响了世界银行资产的稳定性,除非股东再注入资金,世界银行将无法继续向有问题的国家施以援手。到目前为止,世界银行已经向亚洲国家和俄罗斯提供了84亿美元贷款,占可提供贷款额度的77.7%。18

    国际货币基金组织出钱又出力,为受援国提出一大套进一步自由化的改革开放方案,要求那些急需刺激经济景气的国家紧缩银根、提高利率、严格控制财政赤字,而且不能实施货币局制度。19 结果,接受国际货币基金组织援助的国家,至今没有一个可以摆脱困境。克鲁格曼说:国际货币基金组织的计划不但没有将亚洲从危机中挽救出来,反而使情况越来越糟。20 虽然有种种资本自由流动和开放金融市场的理论,作为各国“最后贷款人“的国际货币基金组织,已经在国际游资巨大的破坏力面前无能为力。

    四、欧元面对严峻挑战

    1999年1月1日,欧盟11国正式启动欧元。但是,要到2002年7月,创始国货币才全部退出历史舞台。在这三年过渡期,德国马克、法国法郎、意大利里拉等货币与欧元并存,同时发行和流通。这样“双轨制“的过渡期,为国际炒家利用欧元中央银行与各国中央银行之间政策取向的偏差,选择薄弱环节各个击破,提供了千载难逢的机会。典型的前车之鉴是1992年的英镑“阻击战“。 当时欧洲汇率稳定体制(ERM)中,弱势货币英镑兑马克币值明显偏高。英国既要维持货币币值(维持高息),又要摆脱经济衰退,唯一的出路是要求德国减息。可是,德国刚刚统一,西德马克与东德马克按一比一的汇率合二而一,为了抑制通货膨胀率飙升的强大压力,非但不能减息,反而要加息。于是,弱势英镑成为投机者大笔沽空的攻击目标。一场恶战下来,英镑被国际游资打出欧洲汇率稳定体制。索罗斯志得意满,大赚10亿英镑,英国财相灰头土脸,被迫辞职。21

    如今,参与欧元的11个欧洲联盟国家中,各国的经济发展很不平衡,政策取向也不一致。这些民主国家的民选政府,政治必须服从选票,关键时刻制定政策,只能从本国选民的利益出发,很容易在货币政策上不能共同进退。欧元挑战美元,是一伙钩心斗角的联盟与一个统一强大的巨人搏斗,前景令人担忧。22 如果说1992年,英镑和意大利里拉可以被相继打出欧洲汇率稳定体制(ERM),不能说1999年以后,欧元区的其它货币,譬如德国马克,没有可能成为国际游资投机的目标。如今,德国对俄罗斯的巨额问题贷款已经可能冲击德国的银行体系。23 与原东德和俄罗斯经济关系密切的东欧国家,受俄罗斯危机的直接拖累,波兰、捷克、匈牙利等国的货币已处风雨飘摇之中。24 德国建议用欧元救援俄罗斯,希望由此把自己在东欧和俄国的利益卷成欧盟的集体行动。25 如果俄罗斯和东欧情况恶化,影响到德国的货币和经济政策,造成德国与欧盟其它国家不一致的政策取向,逻辑上,不能排除马克面临1992年英镑处境的可能性。倘若马克受到强有力的冲击,甚至被打出欧元体系,欧元、乃至整个欧盟的前景都将面临空前未有的严峻考验。

    五、全球经济一体化的战国时代

    冷战结束以来,全球进入改革开放的浪潮,主题是经济自由化。大幅度降低关税、贸易自由化、资本自由流动、开放电讯市场、跨国直接投资和企业兼并、发展中国家吸引外资、各种经济同盟的建立、欧盟从关税同盟到贸易自由化到货币一体化等等,所有这些的本质,都是各个国家政府对经济活动直接控制的强度和干预范围越来越小。随着亚洲金融危机以及危机向南美、俄罗斯的蔓延,自由化改革开放的潮流开始了明显的逆转趋势。

    曾几何时,“亚洲模式“成为众矢之的。学术界异口同声:亚洲金融危机的原因是政府过份干预经济,造成泡沫经济。如今,危机蔓延到“亚洲模式“以外的俄罗斯和南美各国。前者实行的是西方大为推崇的“休克疗法“,后者经过债务危机以后几乎成为美国的加工基地。这使人们对危机的理解逐渐加深,并且开始发生逆转。所谓“逆转“,面对的实践是,金融危机以来,各国政府对经济活动的控制和干预都大大加强了。香港始终以政府最少干预经济活动而著称于世。结果,当局不得不庄家下场,亲自和国际游资“埋身肉搏“,紧接着颁布实行“七招三十式“,成为从自由化逆转到大干预而特干预的典型案例。亚洲金融危机早期,国际货币基金组织在受援国家推行进一步自由化的改革,结果不仅无效,而且雪上加霜,遭到普遍批评,是另一个方向的典型案例。金融危机发生以后,中国人民币资本项目可自由兑换的改革,几乎退出进一步改革的逻辑选择空间,是又一个典型案例。马来西亚实行外汇管制的成功,看上去是应付危机诸多手段之中的一种选择,实际上具有特殊的历史意义。逻辑上,与人民币不自由兑换的道理一样,只要短缺资本不能自由流动,本国中央银行的景气调节,就能在本国范围内最大限度地发挥作用。换言之,过去马来西亚经济的景气,是马哈蒂尔和索罗斯一起说了算,因为中央银行的任何景气政策都可能被国际游资的流入流出抵消或者放大。实行外汇管制以后,马来西亚的经济景气就成了马哈蒂尔一个人说了算。在马来西亚国家范围以内,中央银行可以在没有或很少国际游资“对冲“的情况下最大限度地发挥作用。当然,代价是巨大的,特别是对外商长期直接投资的负作用不容忽视。26

    直截了当地实行外汇管制也好,香港的“七招三十式“也好,台湾指名道姓地禁止索罗斯进场也好,性质上都是为国际资本自由流动增加磨擦。倘若不让索罗斯来,罗索斯、斯索罗或者索罗斯自己改个名字还要来,台湾当局还可以继续增加禁止下场的名单,一直增加到国际游资的冲击强度减弱到可以接受的程度。倘若有了“七招三十式“的磨擦,国际游资还来冲击取钱,香港当局还可以继续增加“八招四十式“,一直增加到国际游资的冲击强度减弱到可以接受的程度。换句话说,所以这些政策规定,目的都是要为国际资本流动制造磨擦,直到磨擦大于资本流动的动能,使可能造成伤害的资本不能自由流动为止。所以,政治上宣布不宣布外汇管制是一回事,实际上实行的都是外汇管制,区别只在于管制的程度。因为就算是宣布实行外汇管制,具体到如何管制和管制到什么程度,资本项目和贸易项目之中,本身就有诸多条款,诸多不同程度的限制和区别对待的放松。既然各种政策规定的目的都是使资本流动的磨擦大于资本流动的动能,在这个意义上,我们说不同形式(宣布的和不宣布的)和不同程度的外汇管制,标志着各国和各地区政府对全球范围自由化改革开放潮流的逆转。

    资本自由流动和全球金融一体化的神话,在各国和各地区政府各种形式的外汇管制中逐渐破灭。贸易自由化随之受到威胁。最近,巴格瓦提等西方经济学家把资本自由化与贸易自由化分而论之,值得商榷。80年代末和90年代以来,贸易自由化突飞猛进的发展,和企业跨国化、跨国直接投资突飞猛进的发展紧密联系在一起。在冷战结束的和平环境里,跨国公司全球分工体系内部的“贸易“占世界贸易的比例越来越大,27 不仅在很大程度上使进出口关税成为多此一举,而且强烈要求资本项目的自由流动。在这个物质基础上,各国的外汇管制对跨国直接投资的巨大负面影响是显而易见的。一旦全球范围的跨国直接投资减缓下来,进出口贸易必然重新成为各国政策争执的新焦点。

    纵观近代世界经济发展的历史,始终有一个生产力发展超越国界和世界市场以民族国家为单元分散管理的矛盾。殖民地经济、第一次世界大战、第二次世界大战以及以后的冷战,在经济层面,本质上都是这个矛盾的反映。试想,各国都关起门来,在国界内部按照百万、千万的人口规模生产自己的汽车,美国通用汽车公司一年生产近千万辆汽车,只能卖在美国,怎么可能呢?一个世纪以前,马克思曾经血淋淋地详细描述过英国机织纺织品对印度和中国小农经济的摧残。在这个意义上,说瓦特蒸汽机演化出资本主义全球殖民的历史,并不牵强附会。同理,在这个意义上也可以说,正是持续半个世纪的冷战,把世界市场按照生产力发展的跨国要求,集中成为可以跨国分工和相对自由贸易的两大板块,才奠定了50多年世界经济稳定发展的秩序基础。

    如今,第三世界生产力的供给能力发展起来。生产力的发展,以信息产业为龙头,发生了又一次空前巨大的飞跃。为了适应这个生产力的发展,早在80年代,以洲为单位以致跨州的地区经济贸易结盟就紧锣密鼓地开展起来。冷战一结束,全球经济一体化的浪潮就在贸易,直接投资,开放电讯、媒体、商业、金融市场等所有方面排山倒海而来。如果说生产力的发展与殖民、帝国主义国家之间的世界大战、社会主义和资本主义两大阵营的世界秩序演进,存在某种相辅相成的内在联系,那么今天,技术进步推动的全球经济一体化,更是以百万、千万甚至上亿人口规模为单元的国家所无法容纳的了。在这个问题上,英国、法国、德国和西班牙四个强国联手,才能作成空中客车,与美国航空工业一搏,是生产力发展超越国界在供给方面的典型案例。南韩以几千万人口的国力和市场规模,独立发展各种产业所面临的严峻挑战,是生产力发展超越国界在需求方面的很好说明。

    生产力发展推动的全球经济一体化,是不可抗拒的历史潮流。但是,需要警惕的是,全球经济一体化丝毫不意味着正义和公平。象以往的历史一样,生产力发展要求的全球经济一体化融合了少数生产力发达国家自私的国家利益。譬如,冷战结束以后,美国的军工重组直接威胁欧洲以国家为单位的军工产业的生存。28 譬如,酝酿许久的欧元,说到底,也是欧盟列强团结起来,既抗衡美国,又在全球经济一体化进程中尽量攫取最大份额的工具。譬如,就象当年英国的机织纺织品是用炮舰送来的一样,今天,专玩金融衍生工具的国际游资四处横行作孽,绝大部分集中在美国的几家金融机构。29 亚洲金融危机以后,少数发达国家主导的国际货币基金组织迫使各地受灾政府进一步自由化改革开放。雪上加霜的结果,迫使越来越多的民族国家和地区不得奋起保护自己。马来西亚的外汇管制,台湾禁止索罗斯进场,香港当局与国际炒家“埋身肉搏“,我国人民币不贬值和暂不考虑人民币可兑换的改革等等,都是国家民族利益与全球经济一体化趋势掺合在一起的矛盾反映。如今,从不同形式和不同程度的外汇管制开始,金融危机迫使所有政府干预和控制本国经济的行为大大加强。相对冷战时期的两大阵营而言,世界正在步入一个全球经济一体化的“战国时代“。这似乎是一个矛盾的命题。然而,从瓦特蒸汽机带来的工业革命以来,历史就是这样矛盾地走过来的。这里没有一个纯粹经济学的帕雷托最优模型可以解释的道理。倘若彻底按照帕雷托最优模型办事,过去的帝国主义殖民当然是推动历史前进,争取民族解放就成了反动;今天要防范金融危机,全世界都用美元一种货币,不就万事大吉了,何必还要各国不同货币兑来换去的麻烦?

    “战国时代“核心是一个“战“字。斗争和团结(为斗争需要的结盟)是这个时代的主题。

    1 讨论中,中国社会科学院经济文化研究中心主任邓英淘提出世界进入“战国时代“的概念。作者在与邓英淘的多次讨论中,得到很多有益的启发。作者对本文的观点和错误负责。

    2 据估计,全球对冲基金的资产总额达三万亿美元,再加上借贷能力(以十倍计算),可动用资金达30万亿美元(230万亿港元)(见《苹果日报》:“炒家弹药 230万亿,财司怎招架“,1998年9月14日)。另据估计,全球每天的资金流动,在几年前就达到了1.2万亿美元,其中用于国际贸易的只占1%左右。与此同时,各国的外汇储备一般只是以百亿美元计算,根本不是一个数量级。

    3 见《信报》:“马来西亚实施严厉外汇管制“,1998年9月2日,第8页。

    4 见《信报》:“台央行总裁解释关闭NDF原因“,1998年9月1日,第7页。

    5 见《信报》:“台湾全面封杀索罗斯基金活动,台股急跌创22个月以来新低“,1998年9月1日,第7页。

    6 见《明报》:“星采新股市指数减少受操控“,1998年8月31日,第B-4页。

    7 见John Thornhill:“Fears over devaluation send Russian markets into dive“,Financial Times,1998年8月14日,第1页。

    8 见《信报》:“浅析俄国金融风暴“,1998年9月9日,第16页。 9 据香港无线电视新闻报道,1998年10月3日。

    10 见崔之元编译:“资本神话─商品和服务贸易与美元贸易的差异“,《参阅文稿》,No.98-14。

    11 见《香港经济日报》:“为亚洲把脉─病因:资本市场过早开放“,1998年9月15日,第A-2页。

    12 见Robert J. Samuelson:“Global Capitalism, R.I.P“,Newsweek,1998年9月14日,第28页。

    13 见Rajiv Lall:“Taming Capital Flows“,Far Eastern Economic Review,1998年9月17日,第47页。

    14 见Stephen Fidler:“Capital curbs seen in more favourable light“,Financial Times,1998年9月15日,第12页。

    15 见Paul Krugman:“Saving Asia:it’s time to get radical“,Fortune,1998年9月7日。

    16 对俄罗斯的援助在6月以后,尚未计入。

    17 见Bob Davis:“IMF pledges its readiness to assist Brazil“,The Asian Wall Street Journal,1998年9月8日,第8页。

    18 见Robert Chote:“World Bank sounds alarm over risky emergency loans”,Financial Times,1998年9月25日,第7页。只要这个比例达到80%,按规定就要自动增加世界银行的资本金了。

    19 国际货币基金组织曾经先后在印度尼西亚和俄罗斯强烈反对为稳定货币而实施与美元挂钩的货币发行局制度。 20 见Paul Krugman:“Saving Asia: it’s time to get radical“,Fortune,1998年9月7日。

    21 参见俞岱曦等1998:《金钱与梦想》,中国文史出版社,第149-173页。

    22 参见刘冰:“欧元能挑战美元吗?“见下期《香港传真》。

    23 德国是向俄罗斯贷款最多的国家。为了这些连利息偿付都有困难的问题贷款,德国银行的财务评级会被调低(见Graham Bowley:“Russian crisis hits German banks“,Financial Times,1998年9月15日,第26页)。

    24 见Stefan Wagstyl:“Eastern Europe feels fallout from the crisis“,Financial Times,1998年9月11日,第2页。

    25 德国作为被前苏联和“华约国“战胜的战犯,在冷战结束后,为了自身安全和巩固东、西德重新合并,在北约“东扩“中最卖力气,在俄罗斯和东欧国家投资最多。

    26 参见Sheila McNulty:“Malaysia’s capital controls create investment challenge“,Financial Times,1998年9月15日,第22页。

    27 不说经济国际化程度在殖民时代就很高的英美列强,后来者日本,早在1983年,跨国公司内部产品调度就占日本出口总额的23.7 %,进口总额的27.7%;90年代更分别发展到30%以上(参见王小强:《产业重组时不我待》,中国人民大学出版社1998年版)。

    28 参见王小强:《产业重组时不我待》,中国人民大学出版社1998年版。

    29 衍生工具市场最突出的特点就是高度集中,而且越发展越集中。1993年年底,美国美林、所罗门兄弟、摩根银行、摩根士丹利、高盛和信孚六家,就占全球衍生工具合约的40%。到1996年国际结算银行调查时,美国14家金融机构占了美国全国衍生工具活动的90%。英国396家银行参加衍生工具的交易,其中 22-25家占去交易量的90%以上(参见王小强:“联系汇率的逻辑理解“《香港传真》No.97-8,1997年11月8日)。

    It would be very appreciated, if enthusiasts can provide with better translation.

 Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>