The superpower estate taking Great Power as the main body competes:
21 centuries , the whole world develop super estate only when retinue’s 10 countries have capability. The USA place lives in the first. Include Japan , Russia , China , Germany , France , United Kingdom , Italy , Brazil and India. Compete for Great Power who is in progress , super estate cooperation among nations can’t depend on prompt developing. Being worth paying attention to: China is a world superpower before 1000 , over the past 150 years, is defeated in the west , come down in the world for the developing country, as far as total supply and demand is concerned “but, still list as the world being next only to American economic giant.
Express 1820 sum worlds in 1992 10 leading factors economy
GDP (million U. S. dollar in 1990) takes up world percentage (%) population (thousand people) takes up world portion (%)
1820 is annual
1 China 199210 28.7 381000 35.5
2 Indias 110982 16.0 209000 19.6
3 France 37397 5.4 30698 2.9
4 United Kingdom 36164 5.2 21240 2.0
5 Russias 33779 4.9 45005 4.2
6 Japans 21831 3.1 31000 2.9
7 Austrias 13460 1.9 14268 1.3
8 Spains 12975 1.9 12203 1.1
9 USA 12432 1.8 9650 0.9
10 11864 1.7 11214 1.1 10 490096 70.5 765284 71.7 national maximal Prussia worlds 694772 100.0 1067890 100.0
1 USA 5675617 20.3 255610 4.7
2 Chinas 3615617 12.9 1167000 20.9
3 Japans 2417630 8.61 24336 2.3
4 Germany 1359696 4.9 80576 1.5
5 Indias 1188096 4.2 88120 16.2
6 France 1030356 3.7 57372 1.1
7 Italys 939685 3.4 57900 1.1
8 United Kingdom 927772 3.3 57848 1.1
9 Russias 801837 2.9 149400 2.7
10 Brazil 765014 2.7 156012 2.9 10 maximal countries 18712219 66.8 2987254 54.9 worlds 28000037 100.0 5440983 100.0 data sources: (US) Angus. Maddison: “International economy is recollected for 200 years” be hit by a version , be reformed publishing house , printing plate in 1997, 11th page of super estate rise and fall and cooperation among nations superpower rise and fall approach is: Development of new technology , technology maturity and metastasis , the system changes, politics and the natural conditions change. China and acient Roman Empire Great Wall are ancient super estate. In the Middle Ages the Chinese long range rules the roost: Super estate is Great Wall and a water conservancy. Now and then Chinese A.D. industry in 1000 and the weapon are very developed , iron output is annual 125,000 tons , queen United Kingdom reaches 76,000 tons just now for 700 years. In 1840 United Kingdom becomes world great power , takes up world industry 45%, world commerce 21%, super estate is spinning and weaving , railroad , coal and cast iron. 18 ends of the century arrive at 19 centuries , super estate is spinning and weaving , coal , iron-smelting , mechanical industry, since USA network of railways flourish , reason why are developed in USA. 19 ends of the century arrive at the beginning of 20 centuries , super estate is machinery , iron and steel , chemical industry , routine military affairs , shipbuilding. 1920′s arrives at Second World War , super estate is an automobile , aviation , chemistry , iron and steel , routine military affairs , shipbuilding. Postwar by the end of this century, super estate is nuke industry , astronavigation , electron , aviation , routine military affairs , the automobile develops to the whole world scale, technology depending on the whole world scale.
Chinese super estate has started from military affairs , shipbuilding and steel industry that foreign affairs sends at the modern times , has built 19 munitions factories: Anqing inner ordnance institute , Hubei firearms factory , Jiang Nan create a bureau , Tianjin machine bureau , Jin Ling create the bureau , the Fuzhou boat political situation. New China is in the fifties the first Five-Year Plan period , lays on Soviet Union 150 projects aiding. 44 military affairs industrial enterprise , 12 aviation industry , 16 10 electronics industry , armament industry among them 2 aerospace industry. 4 shipbuilding industry. 20 metallurgical industry , 7 iron and steel , 13 non-ferrous metal among them. 7 chemical industry. Machinery processes 24. 52 the sources of energy industrial enterprise , coal and electric power among them every 25 2 petroleum. Light industry and 3 medicine enterprise. Start in 1962 during the period of economy is very difficult in 1964 A-bomb, is successful , in 1967 the hydrogen bomb , artificial satellite in 1970 , science test satellite in 1971 , ocean-spanning rocket , nuclear-powered submarine are in a row successful; Remote-sensing satellites in 1975. Approach developing super estate in after reform and opening-up is transfer of military technology to civil use , enters domestic and foreign market mainly, if Sichuan of electron headquarter long rainbow, industry corporation of the weapon Jia Ling motorcycle , automobile; Have introduced nuclear power station , technologies such as computer , carrier booster , aircraft.
Super estate , development in recent years centering on national defence estate become globalization estate, especially in capitalism allied country room. 70-80 all-round age cooperations models are F- – - 16 fighter planes , reason USA and Belgiums , Denmark , Hollands , Norway coproduction. Development strategic alliance of weapon has appeared , national defence enterprise has bought together in the late years, the national defense industry intersection hold share. More than 20 developing country has participated in several hundred weapon cooperations project , Brazils , South Africa , Korea Republic , Israels , Singapore and Taiwan have been on the march by uniting in the developed country studying and producing , has built self military affairs industrial base gradually.
National defense industry globalization more the earth’s surface munitions childbirth now and trade unify , the new characteristic that science and technology develops at present if Russia and India sign the cooperation agreement in 10 in 1999, is development of soldiers and civilians dual purpose technology by the fact that compensation trade waiting for a form to carry out so-called package “munitions business , includes military goods trade , civil-use goods trade , military training and manoeuver,aircraft having formed American mordent- – - McDonald-Douglas, the benz automobile following morals waits for the globalization agent of multinational corporation national defense industry to have: Share the safety studying risk , ensuring a collective, civil passenger aircraft the super estate joining the scale carrying out an international is competed for if are 150 large-scale, the whole world Asia-Pacific area of need having 16000 over the coming 20 checking to reach the whole world total demand 42% the above 300 seat aircraft need, for 1710. USA Boeing Company forecasts North America will buy 7836 aircraft in addition , Europe and Asia will buy 6797 5214 and of aircraft down respectively. Asia surpasses to Europe and America , becomes the maximal marketplace of Boeing Company. Large-scale all civil passenger aircraft childbirth is already composed in reply europe airbus monopoly by USA mordent.
The 4-big, country requires that the development comparative advantage developing country never can be very naive , accept the globalization slogan blindly, China can not especially. Be hit by the minitype developing country, those in politics especially cling to can lose sovereign right for price , change economic benefits with the American country. Suppose that Japan postwar save large amount of national defence funds under placing self in the USA nuclear umbrella, provide war logistic services to USA , earn beautiful round foreign currency in Korean War and vietnam war, become the primitive accumulation that economy high speed increases; Latin America is American politics dependency , realize economic takeoff with the introduction of foreign capital, countries such as Mexico brews the beautiful circle even actively melt, sovereign right gives economy to USA.
Great Power is not right away identical , those are in the geopolitics , political and economic systems especially , aspect different countries the ideology and culture in USA. The Russia breakdown with self, not having got sufficient aiding of west , has lost economy social stability on the contrary , neither has come invest international capital.
China is Great Power , the parallel static state benefit being able to not adopt the small country is the development strategy theoretical foundation. Don’t say that this way has brought about being dependent on to the Western countries for the moment, even if hypothesis international environment is always fine , can not finance storm happened this event, this way still can not be brought about by China prosperous and powerful. Any financial magnates , any countries, China who has all digested without end. The Western countries fund , stream can merge into great river to those Southeast Asia small countries , moisten their entire country; The west fund stream arrives at but China , becomes small puddles of water only , resolves the without end common problem. China produces some products if 13 population, being the Western countries , which country can absorb?
Being economic giant , a lot of population of Chinese evidently is one of country strength symbol. Improve the people quality , ensure that matter is rich , society is ordered , civilization , level of education living improve, basis being the Chinese nation stand on one’s own feet. China must have bigger economic control as economic giant, behaviour is key element about nation’s economy and people’s livelihood to home and abroad , it’s the direction being on the move has a control ability, economy outputs and the direction control ability to home and abroad , working out caring for and participate in the international economy actively rule of the game, embodies Chinese benefit in working out middle.
Participating in the international division of labor certainly is necessary , only not being able to judge by parallel benefit of static state so-called, China can only put resource into labor-intensive industries if the textile, for instance , producing is more and more many right away, more and more good clothes and shoes, USA only is capable to do resource arriving at technology-intensive industry all together , childbirth is more and more many, more and more big aircraft and artificial satellite. China goes to exchange 1 USA aircraft- – - – this way and then, with 100 million pair of shoes , benefit is more and more big comparatively wouldn’t it? Even if the damage what to exchange like this , to have let alone to national security, being also extremely no paying on economic benefits. Technological upgrading of labour-intensive product difficult to, needs saturation very easy to accept the population restricting, the product need elasticity is low , reduces a price being able to not expand need. Skilled-intensive products escalates but very quickly , can open up new need unceasingly. The developed country evidently beneficial to comparing prices therefore, exchanged , domestic similar industry and agriculture scissors gap. Produce labour-intensive product if such a Great Power of Chinese concentrates resource, also, the whole world need accommodates without end , very quickly excessively , cuts price by. This it is the Chinese export during the past 20 to increase by very quickly , national wealth increases but slow fundamental cause. Can China only concentrate resource producing clothes? Produce clothes being therefore likely to gain parallel benefit in international division of labor? American certainly does not worry about that China does not produce clothes for it, because of the country who produces clothes’s is not only China , it can be secondary completely the developing country gains clothes other. But, China if unable secondary USA acquisition OS waits for high-tech products , other way is right away not bad. This is a difference , producing clothes and producing new economy OS is really not to divide the work equally. According to that parallel benefit of static state , free trade “principle and policy that gains puts up, be the developed country weapon of theory , harmful for the developing country but. Such says during the past a world country with a large population especially to China , ought to be elaborate about dynamic parallel benefit , foster self strategic industry, otherwise, only is capable to do the ranks world great power is banished out in 21 centuries , may not including India if talking about equal to US Japan-EU ,Brazil also needs to exceed us.
Be that the developed country multinational corporation passes the transnational merger in leading factor whole world industrial restructuring, buy with joint investment form to global expansion. The multinational corporation investment to developing country labor-intensive project , the result sometimes being that the inside divides the work, the joint venture still is commanded by head office overseas. Maximal foreign-funded enterprise of Chinese is German BASF , have 9 chemical enterprises in China , arrive at from the nylon , carpet , alcohol , coating material , vitamin , ethene , dyestuff , latex, to disperse the body, system forming series division of work. Enterprise accepts administrative system (departments or regions) division in the homeland, the share being short of the inherent technology and producing connection, even if grasping major part , technology also very difficult to be able to defeat a multinational corporation, commerce and the finance control. Then, Chinese if self development strategy estate may? That a lot of popular feeling stores misgivings, in other words , being that the implement closes the country to external contacts every day in criticizing summon a matchmaker during the past 20 , advocates that the China-foreign technology works together, entrust the hope developing high-tech and strategic industry to the care of the developed country on one’s body. Our country 150 large-scale civil aviation of seat of self fabrication is gushed the dyadic aircraft of vapor “transporting ten “, is already, is made success, but one side is discarded on 1980, have gone and having composed in reply USA McDonald-Douglas coproduction , have born fruit in mordent merger in 1998 McDonald-Douglas, takes advantage of machine and China having broken the promise , China can only produce 50- – - 80 branch line aircraft now , mordent and Airbus but, have already been designing 300 aerodreadnaught. China needs large-scale 1600 entrance civil passenger aircraft over the coming 20, account for 1/10 of the whole world need, self is not able to give birth to a child but , this is able what “parallel benefit to get could it be said that?
Self does not worth Chinese to the confidence being independent developing strategic industry, outside the effect eliminating pro-America interest group of upper strata and biography matchmaker guiding, so-called “mainstream economics being popular in China for since the nineties”single-faceted advocate parallel static state benefit debate, diction the person fault.
Free trade already becomes inflexible dogma of west economy boundary. Occidental’s instilling into has controlled the world public opinion already to a great extent, to such an extent as many people of the developing country also believe in, road of development economy really only when free trade policy is really. Control down in this thought, somebody has applied secretly scheme against in general even the model indiscriminately in all apparent seriousness “, has figured “China out if accepting a series of trade liberalization measure, actual GDP time 2005 is able to improve 1.5% therefore waiting a minute. According to that this view of the same class , such a developing country of Chinese need to want to development economy , to ought to put free trade policy into practice right away,abandon all protection to homeland estate. Lately, somebody uses the “CGE model “, basic thought still is that free trade , zero customs duties are best much though complicated. A lot of Chinese “mainstream Economists “also says: Free trade is to say efficiency’s , be to produce a problem, more average revenue few being able to give way to every individuals; The protectionism is to be in charge of fairness , be assignment problem , everyone’s average welfare meeting reduces, because of protection always protects a part of person.
Famous Chinese left wing Economists left banks up with demonstration’s greatly on the contrary: Protecting childish estate is to resolve efficiency problem’s exactly , free trade in the long run, do not have high efficiency.
In history, west self develops Jiu Bu Shi by free trade policy. Close about 200 years had assumed international economy most those developed Western countries of powerful country, if United Kingdom , France , USA , Germany , Japan, the developing country once were that industry and commerce is behind other country in in history, protect strictly, be only after self becomes first (be A-1 at least) economy powerful country of world, turn to putting free trade policy into practice just now. The British government once used the most exceeding means to protect in the homeland textile industry , forbad homeland subjects of a feudal ruler to use the other country textile goods when (the textile is the most advanced estate , at that time) thinking that the British textile is behind other country greatly, United Kingdom exactly is to depend on Industrial Revolution beginning from the textile “, become the world the first economy powerful country.
Compare USA with the South America country, economic development how harmful to being able to know free trade policy. 19 beginning of century their economy develops not obvious difference of level , (arable land , the race all look at and appraise other economic conditions if per capita) about the same. American has opposed British unceasingly in 19 centuries intervening whose internal affair , has put altitude trade protectionism into practice to the manufacturing , has developed up advanced industry and economy very quickly right away; South America confuses , puts free trade policy into practice by friendly gesture of the British government but in every country , allow coming to destroy self manufacturing British industry, ranks arriving at for the first time finally all 20 generation time drop-in Third World countries. The failure that entrance replaces since the common people knows Latin-America country 1950′s only, does not know exactly being to have been reached 19 centuries free trade policy suffering but , only vergence “entrance replaces “. We have reason suspicion , play up Latin-America country entrance replaces the strategy failure , shutting up not carrying free trade failure going over, is that developed Western countries is that acting on self’s own destroying a backward nation’s develops , propagating and theory forever, keeping economic advantages but being engaged in mislead.
China is forced to open to the outside world , average customs duties leads 5% after Opium War, average customs duties of USA is 18.5% in 1912. USA already was the industrialized country at that time , the high tariff still protected homeland estate , customs duties protected China only when so low , why could develop Chinese industry! People now is all criticized at that time Westernization Movement, the effort thinking that its feudalism nature has been destined that it develops Chinese industry is impossibly successful. The backward nation light is that not decent customs duties protects this bar in fact , is destined that industry can not develop right away.
Compare cost theory with secretly scheme against in general even model , use dead sight to go to treat the essential productive factors efficacy, nonrecognition essential productive factors efficacy depends on the history producing , nonrecognition foreign trade policy can affect efficacy. The efficacy height is not innate , it studies and takes exercise in depends on people hits the target in practice on pretty big degree. Availability only is capable to do increasingly much, increasingly highly , height , the person cost of production gets over increasingly also right away as soon as the same kind product that enterprise had produced produces efficiency increasingly much the number of times that people does the same species job, low, this law is called the effect “studying”. The American work fault is measured and calculated: The output one kind of the type aircraft’s is accumulated increases by one times , cost of production may reduce 20%. Can cost down from producing the first aircraft to producing second aircraft right away 20%, but after producing out 10,000 aircraft, want reproduction 10,000 aircraft only the cost being able to reduce 20%.
Consider absurdness of the benefit studying an effect, but knowing static state comparison. The new product the developing country is produced is “few , the efficacy relative to old product is lower than the developed country greatly, cost is relatively higher than the developed country. Need to make relative new product cost descend, the mainest approach is to produce much. Relative new product cost initial cannot be studied an effect very much right away forever if height, running after the short-term economic effect,the meeting never improves the relative efficacy of new product. The childbirth protecting these in the homeland new products with great amount customs duties, uses the deficit producing their enterprise being unlikely to , these new product childbirth only is capable to do development , father , 19 centuries Germany Economists Liszt words of theory says with protecting childish estate , protecting customs duties sacrifice’s is value now , is development of national productivity but. Liszt once pointed out sharply , free trade policy was that developed country strangles whose means of future competitor most.
Li Jiatu’s relatively parallel benefit basis is labour theory of value; Having arrived at key element gift theory has become “land , physical labour and “various capital key element theory right away; Li of Angtifu paradox points out but , that USA exports to is labour-intensive product but entering port is a capital-intensive product, opposit to comparative advantage. Have new making an explanation thereupon , think that American comparative advantage lies in the skilled labour force, this is an initial “manpower capital “concept. There be need to prefer theory afterwards , make an explanation why the trade between the developed country, this is to consider from need but is not from the angle supplying than the trade between the developing country and the developed country develops quicker. Be so-called “technology gap theory have value most “, point out comparative advantage coming from the Yu technology gap, the technology gap is the result that a stage invests in in the front but , combine technology development with product life cycle theory , can from the change making an explanation international trade structure on development: One product is that the capital technology-intensive , becoming right away in becoming a long range is intensive in the scheduled time being innovative, before maturation period become skilled labor-intensive in the degenerating stage becomes general labor-intensive right away.
That the gap comments on a “technology “telling us , comparative advantage is not natural, but is that in history is that investment takes form, is to be able to cultivate and to change unceasingly. A country such big of Chinese is especially national, must carry out huge investments in a historical period, train self strategic industry, especially the basis FOAK. Because of most basically , most the core technology, self develops for instance , the computer chip , the on the plane battle radar, can only , American is to be able to not sell , will give us by joint investment neither. Do not know these core technology well, our country industry and external science and technology be dependent on will will be more and more high, before crucial moment be under the control of USA surely, this problem says the international status problem being a Chinese fundamentally , whether is contented with the problem pawning the American client country or not.